Business Challenge

An Indian organic skin care brand wanted to measure the impact of online advertising delivered via a major social media platform on in-app purchasing.

Analytic Edge was engaged to design the test and measure any lift in sales driven by the test campaigns.

AE’s approach covered:

  • Identifying 10 test markets in which to run test campaigns
  • Creating synthetic controls from the remaining untreated markets
  • Measuring the final impact


AE built custom synthetic controls using in-app sales data from the control markets.

The final synthetic control combined 10 markets with different weights for each market. The resulting sales trends for the synthetic control matched the test market with 1% error day to day, allowing for an accurate test.

Test City vs. Synthetic Control Pre-period Match


Final results allowed for an overall and market-by-market read for the 10 test markets.

These market level results showed a positive lift in sales for 5 out of 10 test markets, with lifts running as high as 60%.

The mixed result across markets led the client to pause the campaign, so it could better understand local factors affecting execution, enabling a better ROI for the campaign when it goes live nationally.